The oil price could peak at $150-170 in the next three months and then retreat quickly by the end of the year, a Commerzbank analyst said on Wednesday.
Oil should come back down to under $100 in 2009 but the days of $40 or $50 a barrel are long gone, senior commodity analyst Eugen Weinberg told journalists in Frankfurt.
"I think we are seeing an exaggeration in markets right now and the peak can possibly be reached in the next three months," Weinberg said, estimating a peak price of around $150-$170.
Oil's six-year rally has accelerated this year, with around a 40 percent increase in prices since the start of 2008. It hit a record high of over $140 a barrel on Friday.
"The trigger for this extremely fast-growing bubble is above all the poor performance of other investment classes, like stocks, bonds and property," Weinberg said, with investors turning to oil for returns.
The oil price will not sink to lower levels in the long term because of rising shipping costs and demand from emerging economies, he said.
Oil jumped more than $3 to near $135 a barrel on Wednesday after BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said the world's proven oil reserves were mostly unchanged last year, a further indication of tightening global oil supplies.
I agree that oil price should come down in the short term as my indicator signals sell, but I'm bullish on oil in the long term, believe that we will see US$250 oil in 2 years time.
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